Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.015773 0.017863 0.020146 0.022826 0.025890 0.029289 0.033350
2024-10-20 0.012197 0.014963 0.018249 0.022453 0.027706 0.034080 0.042435
2024-10-27 0.010020 0.012955 0.016640 0.021632 0.028257 0.036797 0.048725
2024-11-03 0.009091 0.012277 0.016468 0.022425 0.030740 0.042028 0.058678
2024-11-10 0.008319 0.011663 0.016240 0.023023 0.032916 0.046970 0.068719
2024-11-17 0.007681 0.011131 0.016026 0.023554 0.034977 0.051884 0.079216
2024-11-24 0.006926 0.010335 0.015326 0.023259 0.035730 0.054877 0.087073
2024-12-01 0.006310 0.009673 0.014740 0.023043 0.036531 0.057961 0.095347
2024-12-08 0.005790 0.009099 0.014221 0.022857 0.037323 0.061057 0.103930
2024-12-15 0.005498 0.008853 0.014182 0.023421 0.039371 0.066382 0.116887
2024-12-22 0.005081 0.008363 0.013700 0.023190 0.040027 0.069378 0.126020
2024-12-29 0.004902 0.008247 0.013819 0.023985 0.042530 0.075829 0.142209
2025-01-05 0.004442 0.007623 0.013038 0.023149 0.042068 0.076967 0.148635
2025-01-12 0.004106 0.007188 0.012548 0.022791 0.042451 0.079713 0.158566
2025-01-19 0.003735 0.006657 0.011839 0.021956 0.041833 0.080458 0.164498
2025-01-26 0.003634 0.006607 0.011995 0.022762 0.044470 0.087844 0.185181
2025-02-02 0.003512 0.006507 0.012048 0.023369 0.046767 0.094777 0.205778
2025-02-09 0.003391 0.006396 0.012067 0.023909 0.048972 0.101745 0.227353
2025-02-16 0.003179 0.006094 0.011692 0.023609 0.049380 0.104917 0.240616
2025-02-23 0.002994 0.005830 0.011371 0.023390 0.049933 0.108453 0.255181
2025-03-02 0.002828 0.005590 0.011077 0.023201 0.050529 0.112139 0.270583
2025-03-09 0.002750 0.005525 0.011135 0.023774 0.052891 0.120117 0.297761
2025-03-16 0.002600 0.005298 0.010839 0.023539 0.053369 0.123720 0.314195